About the project

This pilot project builds on the Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index (GEOII) to identify the moments in the EU enlargement process where external economic ties, through trade, financial flows, and economic policy, shape EU accession negotiations with candidate countries in Southeast Europe.

The project examines relevant clusters and chapters of the EU’s enlargement methodology, mapping the depth and relative strength of the EU’s trade, financial, and policy relationships with Western Balkan countries. These are set alongside those of key geopolitical competitors, chiefly China and Russia, as well as other emerging actors, to identify where outside influence intersects with acquis-related reforms. The analysis translates into concrete, evidence-based recommendations for how the EU and its partners can navigate these dynamics constructively.

Given their more advanced stage in the accession process, Montenegro and Albania are the primary focus of the research, while the implications for the wider Western Balkans enlargement process are also assessed.

Regional impact

The project will produce a policy brief with actionable recommendations grounded in the findings of the GEOII analysis. With Montenegro and Albania both aiming to join the EU before the end of the decade, and both having been subject to large-scale investments and loans from non-EU actors, the brief will address what these relationships mean for accession and future membership.

Targeted recommendations will focus on adapting EU instruments to the region’s geoeconomic realities. These include the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF), the Growth Plan, and the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans (GAWB), as well as ways to deepen political interconnectivity ahead of accession. Three interlocking themes run through the recommendations.

The first concerns strategic importance: the brief will make the case for Southeast Europe as a region directly relevant to the stability and security of wider Europe. The second addresses economic opportunity: it will highlight the potential for EU businesses and investors, particularly in the energy sector, and show how these opportunities can be better aligned with existing EU programs and with the interests of local businesses and communities. The third concerns policy influence: the brief will map the risks and benefits of external actors’ presence for the EU integration process and outline practical ways to secure EU influence in shaping a more secure and prosperous European neighborhood.

Local impact

By placing Montenegro and Albania at the center of the analysis, the project engages directly with the reform environments that policymakers, businesses, and civil society organizations in these countries navigate every day. Expert interviews with researchers and practitioners from the region ensure that local knowledge is embedded in the analysis from the outset, giving regional voices a channel to shape EU-level enlargement debates.

The resulting recommendations are designed to translate into tangible prospects for citizens and businesses in both countries, connecting the technical language of EU accession to the realities of people living through the process.